Harvey Quickly Strengthening and Forecast to Be Major Hurricane

Here’s the 10:40 a.m. report on Harvey from the National Weather Service covering southeast Texas.

Harvey is gaining strength fast and is forecast to become a major hurricane before it makes landfall on the middle Texas coast either Friday night or into Saturday. There are no tropical storm watches or warnings in effect for Bryan, College Station, or Brazos County at this time, but that does not mean that we won’t be seeing gusty winds and heavy rain over the next several days. Some of these bands of rain may be able to produce rainfall in excess of 3 inches per hour, so flash flooding will be a concern.

Currently, the weather service and other meteorologists are estimating that Brazos County will be likely to get anywhere from 3-10 inches of rainfall over the next 3-7 days, depending on the strength and direction of different bands of rain from Harvey, with some local areas possibly getting even more than that.

This is a serious situation and residents are encouraged to follow our City of Bryan updates here and on our social media channels, and to check your local news outlets and keep up-to-date on the changing weather conditions.

 

Here’s the latest projected path of the storm, the latest projected rainfall totals, and the complete 10:40 a.m. statement from the National Weather Service. 

projected rainfall totals 1040 am aug 24
 

projected path 10:40 a.m. aug 24
 

Hurricane Local Statement
Tropical Storm Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 16
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-242345-

Tropical Storm Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 16
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL092017
1040 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

This product covers Southeast Texas

**HARVEY QUICKLY STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE
WHEN IT APPROACHES THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST**

NEW INFORMATION
—————

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
– A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Austin, Colorado,
and Waller

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
– A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
for Brazoria
– A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Austin, Colorado,
Fort Bend, Liberty, Waller, and Wharton
– A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
for Chambers, Galveston, and Harris
– A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
Jackson and Matagorda

* STORM INFORMATION:
– About 380 miles south-southeast of Galveston TX or about 360
miles south-southeast of Matagorda TX
– 24.0N 93.3W
– Storm Intensity 65 mph
– Movement North-northwest or 340 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
——————

Tropical Storm Harvey continues to strengthen as it moves northwest
towards the Texas Coast. Harvey is expected to continue to strengthen
into a hurricane on Friday before landfall. At this point, Harvey could
become a major hurricane before landfall. The primary impact from
Harvey remains heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding for southeast
Texas. There is also the threat for tropical storm to hurricane force
winds and life threatening storm surge along the coast. The most likely
arrival time for tropical storm force winds to reach the upper Texas
coast is Friday afternoon.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
—————–

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across the southern half of Southeast Texas.
Potential impacts include:
– Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
– Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
become stressed.
– Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having significant impacts.

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible devastating impacts
across Matagorda Bay and into Jackson County. Potential impacts in this area
include:
– Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
– Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
– Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
– Widespread power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible devastating impacts
across the Upper Texas Coast from Port O`Connor to up the coast to
Sargent. Potential impacts in this area include:
– Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
uninhabitable for an extended period.
– Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
stressed.
– Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
– Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
onshore and stranded.

Also, prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across from San Luis Pass to Galveston and High Island.

Elsewhere across Southeast Texas, little to no impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
much of Southeast Texas. Potential impacts include:
– The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
– A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
– Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across Southeast Texas, little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
———————————-

* EVACUATIONS:
WATCH/WARNING PHASE – For those under evacuation orders, leave as
soon as practical with a destination in mind. Gas up your vehicle
well ahead of time. Be sure that you take all essential materials
from your emergency supplies kit. Let others know where you are going
and when you intend to arrive.

WATCH/WARNING PHASE – If evacuating the area, stick to prescribed
evacuation routes. Look for additional traffic information on roadway
smart signs and listen to select radio channels for further travel
instructions. Drivers should not use cell phones while operating
vehicles.

WATCH/WARNING PHASE – For those not under evacuation orders,
understand that there are inherent risks to evacuation (such as
traffic congestion, accidents, and driving in bad weather), so
evacuate only if necessary. Help keep roadways open for those that
are under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and take necessary
actions to secure your home or business. Deliberate efforts should be
underway to protect life and property. Ensure that your Emergency
Supplies Kit is stocked and ready.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track as there are inherent forecast uncertainties
which must be taken into account.

If you live in a place that is particularly vulnerable to high wind,
such as a mobile home, an upper floor of a high rise building, or on
a boat, plan to move to safe shelter. Take enough supplies for you
and your family for several days.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley or canyon, or near an already swollen
river, plan to move to safe shelter on higher ground

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any orders
that are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives
of others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be conducted
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds and heavy rain can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and other family members know of your
intentions and whereabouts for surviving the storm. For emergency
purposes, have someone located away from the threatened area serve as
your point of contact. Share vital contact information with others.
Keep cell phones handy and well charged.

Be a Good Samaritan and check on those who may not be fully aware of
the situation or who are unable to make personal preparations.

Visitors to the area should become familiar with nearby surroundings.
If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which
you are located and where it is relative to current watches and
warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their
onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially
pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
– For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
– For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
– For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
———–

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Houston/Galveston TX around 430 PM CDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.